EIA Wednesday
Headline commercial draw-7.864
Week ending May 15, 2026
THE PRINT
The US pulled a whopping 9.92 MMbbl from the SPR last week, an all-time weekly record and the second set in as many weeks. Add the 7.86 MMbbl commercial crude draw and the country emptied close to 17.8 MMbbl of its crude buffer in seven days, while still exporting 5.49 MMbpd. This is not organic tightness. It is Washington spending the strategic reserve to hold the tape through the Middle East crisis, and the pace is accelerating: 7.1, then 8.6, now 9.92. The buffer is the story, and it is draining fast. The buffer is the story. Watch the pace - if next week SPR draw is above 9.92, September tank-bottom becomes September event risk.
Records this week
SPR: new all-time weekly draw record, -9.92 MMbbl. Second straight record week (prior record -8.6 MMbbl, week ending May 8).
Jet fuel exports: 455 kbpd, highest in series
Crude exports: 5.49 MMbpd, #3 highest in series
Top movers (w/w)
SPR -9.92 MMbbl, z -5.6
OUTSIZEDCommercial crude -7.86 MMbbl, z -1.5
notableCushing -1.60 MMbbl, z -1.1
notable
The SPR is drawing at an ungodly rate. US SPR specifically: 31mb released by 8 May.
Current projections put this at tank bottom in September. “9mb of the 11mb of US SPR crude exported so far were shipped to Europe.” Source: IEA citing Kpler ship tracking. ‘‘Around 31 mb of crude... released by 8 May, including 1.6 mb in March." Source: IEA monthly May report.
Motor and diesel stocks not looking great here at all.
Motor gasoline and distillate draws accelerating into peak demand season. Stocks sitting below the 5-year range with no obvious rebuild path.
Production going gangsters.
Dare I say drill, baby drill? I’m still not convinced many drillers will it is ‘capital smart’ to now deploy new rigs into the field. Ill defer to The Dallas Feds next survey. The caution to do so is that these higher prices would not last. Given the shape of this situation, refiners margins and the probability that we are now in a new ‘higher for longer’ regime, drillers may be convinced to put capital to work. However, another leg higher will lead to severe demand destruction. In such a case, deploying new rig ups would then meet a world that looks to the plethora of alternatives, rather than pay top dollar at the pumps. This writer switch to a hybrid EV ince the 12 day war broke out.
In short, this entire SOH situation serves as a great accelerator for hybrid/ev/solar adoption rates. See below the Dallas Fed survey responses to the question ‘‘In light of the recent increase in oil prices, how has the number of wells your firm expects to drill in 2026 changed since the start of the year?’’
US Exports
We are making history across the deck here.
Refinery going strong
Jet Fuel
That’s the report.