Shut in
A global risk
In this report: There is now global contagion to food prices via locked in & shut down oil and gas production. This will impact fertilizer production, affecting global food production. This is not a horizon risk. It is happening. Next phase? Khrag Island!
Key Stats. WTI +35.64% (+$23.98) Open $75.00 High $92.61 Low $ 69.20 Close $91.27
Articles
Oil Prices Drop as the G7 Considers Releasing Up to 400 Million Barrels
European gas prices jump by as much as 45% as Qatar stops LNG production
A Hormuz Shock Could Push Egypt to the Brink
How Chevron’s New Deals Could Transform Iraq’s Production Outlook
JP Morgan: US–Israel military operation against Iran: Are markets on edge?
Middle East trade under threat Shipping, freight and sanctions | Mar 2026
Probe into North Sea rig incident ends
The Nixon shock and the birth of the petrodollar
My current favourite comedian Tim Dillon hosts sober realistic view on the war
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View
There is an enormous amount of noise to process right now. As always, I will attempt to synthesise this into a clear, coherent view. I am publishing as of 11am GMT Monday 9th March 2026.
Last week saw Monday’s gap up price action +13% fall a little short of 15-20% up expectations. Tuesdays pullback had somewhat of a catalyst as the IEA held an emergency meeting and the market waited for further developments and hope of some form of de-escalation. This did not materialise and the situation deteriorated, spilling into a broader regional conflict. This resulted Thursday, in an acceleration of upside repricing, well over Tuesdays highs and above the 12-day war high of $78.40 on WTI. I tweeted Wednesday that this level would be taken out with strength.
